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Sharon Meyers's avatar

I spent my entire career in software quality because that’s where thye rubber met the road. My most gratifying stretch was when I had a manager who told developers, if she says it doesn’t go out, then it doesn’t go out—you fix it. Yes, we started working on some tools to automate some of the QA checkin,. But I maintained that software would not solve the “bugs that are “hard to find,” the corner cases. That would take a creative human brain. I eventually quit over such issues. Completely quit—the company (a very large, very well known one), the discipline. I became a computer science teacher, and taught my “value beliefs” along with the details of coding and getting something to work right for a user. I have railed about testing problems for years, still do.

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throwaway's avatar

The pipeline problem isn't just a problem in one niche industry. Its a problem everywhere, and the timeline is actually quite a lot shorter than people think.

There are many problems with AI, you've discussed a number of them quite well. What you don't really touch on is the timeline which comes down to economics. If you are not economically compensated, and there is no perception that you ever will be compensated for something, no one goes into the industry. No one invests at the individual level.

AI is a ponzi that eliminates value. It does so in the same ways that Mises write's about with regard to the inevitable failures of socialism (defined as a centrally organized economy where the means of production are owned or controlled by the state). Money-printed environments meet the definitional requirements for this and I've seen nothing that refutes the core failure domains he provides. While the route is circuitous and indirect, the incentives of negative feedback systems being turned into positive feedback systems drive this forward and the trajectory is set with the outcome being just a matter of time.

If value is only ever based on potential human action, and only one party (producers) are enriched in an economy (sieving wealth into few hands) while demand for work is reduced to zero. No one gets hired. No one can pay for anything. Distortions warp the very perception and economic calculation fails to chaos.

Demand isn't need. Its the intersection of supply and demand where the perceived market supply crosses at a price point where money will change hands. Adam Smith covers this requirement in an economic context in his books (1776). You can have great need, and no demand if no one can or is willing to pay for something.

AI ensures there is no demand in factor markets both in terms of cost per hour in throughput, and in the transparent imposition of additional costs caused by jamming communications networks with slop to tortuously interfere with legitimate workers and producers finding a equitable match up. The same thing happens in cellular networks with RNA interference.

A good portion of the job market cycles out every 10 years in every industry. People retire, are injured, have life changes, or die. Its a pipeline that constantly empties.

If you can no longer find work because the competition is high and interference suppresses wages, to the point where you have submitted well over 10,000 applications of customized resume, have a decade of direct experience, and it gets to the 2 year mark where you only got 12 interviews (no offers) as a return on that investment of time and effort. The trend is set. (This has happened to multiple people I know since 2022).

What happens? The competent most intelligent people retrain to something with economic benefit. They abandon their experience as a write-off because they have to. Its a sticky psychological decision, and while they won't stop, or turn down a job its still a lost investment. This has already happened in IT starting in late 2022, the 2 year mark was last year; people are retraining.

Resilient Systems break on a lag, Money-printing has decoupled the need to act, this is a cascade failure that's been happening, and I've been talking about it but all communications are jammed with AI sentiment slop because tech systems have isolated everyone from the reality.

At year 5, you have no replacements. You can't really find qualified help. Brain drain is in full swing. Year 7-10, knowledge is lost. Your semi-competent, bottom run people burn out, it all gravitates to the lowest common denominator just like any other industry that is fueled by money-printing (i.e. Education/Government). No replacements. If you take a lens of economics from Mises, you'll recognize this is the ECP in factor markets. The other problems too all stem from money-printing. Cooperation based on ties to money prevent true economic calculation, GDP growth without datacenters stalls (0.1% for the year). Stagflation takes hold, and the only solution is helicopter money; but that's no real solution. The sieves also happen on the producer side, outsized concentration leads to corruption and large impacts from bad decisionmaking.

Money-printing leads directly to hyper-inflation and then to deflation, or straight to deflation when it doesn't exponentially increase. Prices distort. Banking drives all this. If you look at the changes they made to banking in 2020, interest rates no longer control the bad actors in banking. Fractional reserve was silently discarded in 2020 for Basel3 which is a flawed system based in objective valuation or value (something that's been disproved). I.e. its called a capital reserve system, but there is no reserve. They set deposit reserves to 0% in 2020.

The History of Collapse and Money-printing all cover what we are seeing now. The effects are a problem domain where it lag ahead of any indication of the cause similar to avalanches or dams.

Stage 3 ponzi is here, and these are just the symptoms. What happens to food production when you can't exchange anything for food because currency is worthless. Those that print money steal slave labor from those that hold it. People stop having children when they cannot support the raising of them. Lots of serious serious consequences. By the time the average person figures it out it will be too late to act to change outcomes (hysteresis). Intelligent people should have caught this, but there's been a war against the intelligent for quite some time to the point very few exist compared to previous years. They used to raise everyone up around them, but because of sophisticated techniques to fractionate, and disunify the masses at scale and other things (originating in torture which destroys such people's minds through trauma).

The canaries have largely died silently with little notice. Its a spectrum sure, but the concentration has decreased precipitously. There are quite dark times ahead.

I've been thinking this series of events through for quite some time now and its probably the highest probability we've had for malthusian collapse we've ever had in documented history; though time will tell (and that's just my opinion).

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